The Conservative manifesto: experts' verdict

The manifesto, which was published today (June 11), included policies that covered housing, pensions and tax. 

Experts have given their verdicts on the policies set out by Rishi Sunak and the implications they could have on voters. 

Pensions 

Steven Cameron, pensions director at Aegon, said pensions and pensioners were “central” to this general election.

The Conservative’s confirmed they would not only retain the state pension triple lock but go one step further with their triple lock plus plans, meaning state pensioners will have a personal allowance above the full new state pension and therefore won’t be subject to income tax on this state pension. 

However, Cameron pointed out a number of pension developments didn’t get a mention including when enhancements to auto-enrolment might be advanced.

“These would open up automatic enrolment into workplace pensions from age 18 rather than 22 and would gradually increase the minimum contributions to 8 per cent of earnings from the first £1, rather than only on earnings above £6,240,” he added.

Tom Selby, director of public policy at AJ Bell said the triple lock plus policy was a “naked grab for older voters” with younger voters much less keen. 

He said: “Older voters continue to hold the keys to Downing Street, so we should perhaps not be surprised that Sunak has moved to super-charge the triple lock to win them over. However, there is a serious generational divide when it comes to the policy, with older people attracted to the pledge and younger voters much less keen.

“This likely reflects the vested interests of both cohorts, with those in receipt of the state pension keen to keep bolstering their incomes, while younger people are perhaps fearful of the impact hiking the state pension today could have on their future state pension entitlement or other areas of public spending. 

“While committing to the triple lock was the easy choice for both major parties politically, the demographic time bomb hitting the UK means at some point the next government will need to address the fundamental questions of what the state pension should be worth and when people should receive it.”

Tax 

Sunak also announced he would look to abolish national insurance for the self-employed. 

Shaun Moore, tax and financial planning expert at Quilter, said the axing of the tax would present a “mixed bag of implications”.

“While on the surface, it appears to be a reasonable benefit for the self-employed, a bigger rabbit out of the hat might have been needed to turn the tide in the polls for the Tories. This is compounded by the fact that the plans do not amount to a full-scale abolition and the two per cent NICs on profits over £50,270 would still stand.

“The abolition of Class 4 NI contributions, while beneficial, does not constitute the kind of sweeping reform that could drastically alter the economic environment or address the more pressing challenges like public sector funding.

“However, for self-employed individuals this new policy would be undeniably positive.

"A self-employed person with profits of £40,000 could save £1,646 per year under the proposed new rules. Meanwhile, someone with profits of £75,000 will save £2,262 although they will still pay £495 due to the 2 per cent NICs on profits over £50,270 still being in place under these proposals,” he explained.

The Conservatives also announced they would cut national insurance by a further 2 percentage points by 2027 with a long-term aim to remove the tax altogether, "when it is affordable to do so".

Jason Hollands, managing director at Evelyn Partners believed the cut was “not to be sniffed at”.

He said: “Together with the 4p already cut from national insurance this year, another 2p off would add up to a quite significant tax cut, which is put at £1,300 a year for the average worker by the Conservatives. Higher and additional rate taxpayers are already benefiting from a £1,508 annual boost to take-home pay from the two NI reductions that arrived in January and April.

“A halving of NI is not to be sniffed at but even if the Sunak government had had time to implement this, it would - like the first two cuts - have been swimming against a rising tide of taxation and drowned out in household perceptions by growing financial burdens.”

Housing 

Laura Suter, director of personal finance at AJ Bell said the Tory’s stamp duty reforms which include abolishing stamp duty for first time buyers and extending the help to buy scheme was “nothing new”.

She said: “Rishi Sunak has admitted that it has become harder to become a homeowner under the Conservatives, but his policies for first-time buyers will do little to change the situation. Rather than announcing new policy, the Tories have opted to rinse and repeat their previous policy and just extend existing schemes.

“Most aspiring homebuyers will likely find this set of policies lacking in imagination and excitement. While they will help to get some people on the property ladder, it’s not the drastic reform that many would have been looking for. Likewise, once again the Lifetime ISA is overlooked as a key way to boost first-time buyers’ deposit savings.”

Paul Diggle, chief economist at Abrdn, called property a “key election battleground”.

“Despite a tendency to prioritise property wealth at the expense of pensions or investments, the two don’t have to be mutually exclusive. Successive governments have provided support for the UK property market.

"Imagine the impact on people’s long-term financial resilience, not to mention the wider economy and UK capital markets, if a UK government could build a broader culture of investing,” he added.

Social Care 

The Conservative’s also recommitted to their plan on social care funding but Cameron told FT Adviser, he was surprised that the party wasn’t making a focus on this as it may be a “differentiating factor” with Labour. 

He said: “It’s an area where our own research continues to point to significant concerns particularly when it comes to planning ahead for possible future costs.

“I expect the £86,000 would be increased for inflation which of course has been particularly high in the last couple of years.”

alina.khan@ft.com